- Innovators - 2.5%
- Early Adopters - 13.5%
- Early Majority - 34%
- Late Majority - 34%
- Laggards - 16%
When it comes to app books we are, i believe, in the innovators space where the customer base is only 2.5% of the full potential. This seems to be backed up by casual conversations I have with a number of app/book developers who seem to be having a problem turning app/books into real money. To put it simply: There is simply not enough people who want or are aware of app/books to make selling them profitable. This is a hard truth to accept for me but it seems clearer ever day.
You would think that if you are "ahead of the curve" that you are going to have an advantage. The "early bird gets the worn". The trouble is you have to survive until you are no longer ahead of the curve but riding the mass adoption stage to make real money. Another hard truth is that only a few of the innovators will survive to reap the benefits of mass adoption. As much as I would love to think I'm "that guy", the challenges are formidable. Although adoption is bound to increase fairly quickly ( 5 - 10 years) the question is how quickly and who will be able to take advantage of it.
There is another theory of technology adoption called "The Chasm" which states that there is a big hurdle (or chasm) to jump between innovating in a product category and being able to take advantage of mass adoption. Some companies will jump the Chasm and most will not.
There is another theory of technology adoption called "The Chasm" which states that there is a big hurdle (or chasm) to jump between innovating in a product category and being able to take advantage of mass adoption. Some companies will jump the Chasm and most will not.
I need to go back and read the seminal book on The Chasm to better understand what is going on. I also need to read some other books like the one on disruptive technologies. Succeeding in the long run at app/books isn't going to be simply a matter of having a better mouse trap - although that's absolutely necessary - its going to require a more holistic approach. What that holistic approach is at this point I don't know, but I'm not giving up until I figure it out and either fall flat on my face or ride the curve to the top.
2 comments:
The other thing to research is what demographic is most likely to buy these things? What books has that demographic already read and what will they want to read next? My hunch is that you're on the mark with the first question but not the latter. These classics will be fun for you but how big is the audience of people who want to rebuy and reread? Maybe seek out some lesser known titles or commission a new one and use your expertise to turn them into new classics....
Perseverance may be half the battle! I just started reading your blog and admire the openness as you document your journey. At Demibooks, we were also initially inspired by the disruptive potential of the iPad and titles such as Alice and the Elements. We've focused on our Composer platform, but like yourself have gone through the baptism by fire that is producing quality book apps. Until there are viable business models, it's tough to see what worked in 2010 continuing to do so - and hence your platform plays. Hang in there and do check us out!
Demibooks
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