In another life (a couple years ago or less) I was working for Curl, a Rich Internet Application platform that you've probably never heard of and probably will never hear of again. The executive team (of which I was a member) did its best to convince businesses across the World that Curl was a better choice than Adobe Flash. In truth, we were kidding ourselves. While Curl had some technological advantages, Adobe Flash was the RIA winner with somewhere around 97% penetration on the Desktop and an army of hungry Flash developers creating really cool web sites. We didn't have a chance. I got laid off. My friends and boss got laid off. The company has all but disappeared as far as I can tell. Here is my blog post from January 2008 when I joined Curl. And here is my first blog post about the company after I left. (I was really into Microsoft Surface back then.)
In the last days of my short tenure at Curl I watched with envy while Adobe took over the World with their awesome graphics and tools. If you would have asked me then I would have said that Adobe was going to rule the Internet in another five or ten years. How wrong I was and how tenuous is the domination of any company in these fast moving times.
When the Apple iPhone came out without Flash people complained. I complained. But in truth it wasn't that big of a deal and soon I forgot all about Flash as I surfed the web from my little Jesus phone. It's been less than two years since then and the World, in my eyes is totally different. Now the coolest kids on the block are developing iPad applications. Don't believe me? Go to any party loaded with software developers and its the iPhone or iPad developer that walks out the door with the hottest date - and probably the only one with a date for that matter.
All kidding aside it seems like the dominance of Adobe Flash was eons ago doesn't it? How fast things change. If you want to be doing really cool work there is only one place to be in my mind and that's on the iPad and iPhone. At least for now. Talk to me in another two years and I'm sure I'll be off doing something totally different. I love this business. It's impossible to get bored.
Today, I discovered that Steve Job's has written an open letter about why the iPhone OS will not support Flash. Although some of it is a bit of a stretch (like the roll-over stuff) the bulk of it it is right on target. I've worked for the last 15 years on platform independent technologies and I can tell you that's its a joy to be doing platform specific work for a change where the software and hardware are like one. You know how things are going to work and when you run into problems finding solutions is sooooo easy, because everyone is working on exactly the same hardware, operating system, and SDK as you are.
So are iPhone and iPad developers "locked-in" to the iPhone OS? Most definitely. And no one is complaining about it. In fact we are bragging about it. For me. For now at least. It's: Goodbye Java. Goodbye Microsoft. Goodbye Adobe Flash. Hello, Apple iPhone OS!
2 comments:
I think you're backing yourself into a corner. Flash isn't dead and won't be just because apple decides not to adopt it. If anything, Steve Jobs is making the same mistakes he made in the past that left Apple to go down hill and Microsoft to take over the market. It's only a matter of time before Apple is on the lonely side of the road as the rest of the world moves to more open platforms and discussion. Jobs is leaving the door wide open (like normal) for google to be the next Microsoft and drink it's milkshake. The current iphone and ipad market isn't sustainable and it's no surprise that people are developing for it and it's all you hear about because it's the only one doing it successful at a quality level right now. But this isn't sustainable for apple and eventually people that only develop for that platform are going to be on the wrong end of the stick; just a matter a months (not years anymore) IMO. The gloating and bragging is going to be one of the driving forces that inevitably ends Apple's lure. ;) With that said, I do like my iphone. 90% of people I know who have ipads are developers or are the types to buy all new devices and generally don't end up using any of them. So basically developers are creating applications for themselves lol.
Excellent comments, Seth. Thank you!
The past events that lead to Apple near demise and Microsoft's domination of the market were pretty different in my opinion. Different times.
I actually think the iPhone OS model is very sustainable if the Justice department can keep its nose out of it.
For the life of me I just can't see how HP or Microsoft or anyone else can create an experience as awesome as the iPhone and iPad. Look, the iPhone came out three years ago and we have not seen a single decent competitor to that device despite enormous effort by Nokia, Microsoft, Palm, Motorola, and others.
I've played with the Microsoft multi-touch computers which have Windows 7 and to be honest, the experience is pretty poor compared to the iPad. I just don't believe that HP and others have it in them to create an experience that rivals Apples. Not now anyway.
You make your bets, my friend, and I'll make mine. If you are betting on Adobe Flash I think you are going to regret it. Of course, we won't know for at least two or three years. If I'm right and Flash has seen its glory days than I'll make sure to remind you of this conversation. If I'm wrong, I'll just stay silent and hope you forget. ;-)
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