A lot of folks have written that 2010 will be the year of multi-touch and to some degree they are right, but multi-touch will only be an enabler for a more obvious consumer technology, E-Readers.Sony has been offering E-Readers for a while and when Amazon.com came out with the Kindle, I seriously considered buying one. But I didn't. I just couldn't justify purchasing a dedicated reading device and I still strugle with that.
When Amazon.com came out with the Kindle iPhone application I didn't give it much thought. It solved the "dedicated device dilemma", but who would want to read a book on their iPhone? The iPhone screen works for games, applications, and even video but for book reading. No, the screen was just too small.
A couple months later I was in a jam. It was Sunday night and I didn't have a book to read to the kids. We read a couple chapters of a book every night. The library was closed and so were the book stores. I remember the iPhone kindle application and decided to give it a go. I download the iPhone Kindle application from the AppStore (free), purchased a copy a Kindle edition of Beauty and the Beast from Amazon.com ($1.49) and read it to the kids. After the first evening I was hooked on Kindle for the iPhone.
Reading on the small iPhone screen proved not only possible but also enjoyable. Flicking through pages was easy and the text could be made really small or fairly big. I didn't suffer from eye strain from the back-lit screen and the type was clean and crisp. I compared my experience with the iPhone to the actual Kindle device and decided that for me the iPhone was better. The screen size was more convenient, the text easy to ready, and I didn't have to carry around a second device. Since then I've read several books on my iPhone and the thought of going back to paper is very unappealing.
After reading my first book on the iPhone I tried the same experience on two touch screen computers: The HP TX2z Multi-Touch Notebook and the ASUS Eee PC T91MT. As I wrote in a later blog entry I was pretty disappointed in the HP and sent that back soon after getting the ASUS (HP game me a full refund, thank you!). I kept the ASUS for a while and even read a book on it using the Kindle for the PC, but the experience was inferior to the iPhone because the device was so heavy and like the HP, the multi-touch sensitivity was horrible. I finally returned the ASUS to Amazon.com (they refunded only part of the money so I won't be buying electronics from them again). The truth is that the multi-touch tablet computers available today are simply too heavy to make for good E-Readers and their multi-touch functionality is so horrible as to be basically useless. The iPhone wins on the multi-touch and the E-Reader front.
Given the poor state of multi-touch on tablet PCs - a situation that I hope will improve soon - the iPhone remains the best touch enabled personal device on the market. It's incredibly versatile (i.e. phone, web browser, e-reader, video player, game machine) and its touch functionality is by far the best implementation available today. 2010 will not be the year of multi-touch if PC manufactures continue to offer the kind of experience they are today.
So, what about Electronic Ink? Most people assume that the Electronic Ink reading experience is superior to back-lit LCD because you won't suffer eye strain. I don't find that to be the case at all. In fact, I prefer the back-lit LCD reading experience to the Electronic Ink experience you get with the Kindle and Sony devices. In addition, Electronic Ink is limited to black and white and gray scale coloring. It doesn't support video and the current devices are not very interactive compared to an iPhone.
I actually think Electronic Ink will take a few more years before it can compete with LCD technology especially given the evolution of media. Given the versatility of electronic readers why limit yourself to bland gray-scale images? LCD technology will continue to improve while Electronic Paper plays catch-up. The future, in my opinon, are small thin slate computers with back-lit LCDs and at least some touch capabilities. That is the only platform that is versitile enough to support the printed word as it evolves.
A good example of the power of an LCD computer screen over Electronic Ink is this video from Sports Illustrated showing a concept E-Reader experience with color images, video, changeable layout, menus, search and so on. Another example is an E-Reader concept by Bonnier R&D which is prettier than the Sport Illustrated version but not as versatile (see video below). Both of these videos are concepts and should not to be taken to seriously, but they do illustrate the real power of LCD compared to Electronic Ink. They also illustrate some interesting multi-touch gestures and content layouts, but as I said the multi-touch aspect while important is not the thing people will notice the most in 2010. It will be the emergence of the E-Reader as a must-have personal computer device. But what about the dedicated device dilemma?
In the era of the iPhone, devices that are only mobile phones, or only GPS, or only cameras, is over. People don't want to lug around a device for each need. The idea of a multi-purpose device was a widely held dream for years, but it was not realized until Apple introduced the iPhone with iTunes and AppStore. So, given the really poor state of multi-touch in the PC market, the rise of the E-Readers, and the desire for these all-in-one devices I suspect that the device of choice for folks this coming year will be the iPhone (again) followed closely by the much anticipated iSlate. If the iSlate is as versitile as I and many others have suggested, it will not only be an outstanding video and game platform it will also be an excellent E-Reader. As it stands now, the iSlate is the most likely device to propel E-Readers into mainstream (not to mention giving the PC manufactures a black eye).
2 comments:
In the era of the iPhone, devices that are only mobile phones, or only GPS, or only cameras, is over.
I don't know if this is strictly true. For many people, having a reliable phone is more important than having an all-in-one device.
Many's the time I couldn't even answer my iphone, because it had decided not to recognise my unlocking motion. If I was in an accident, I suspect that I'd have more success trying to call out on a phone with physical buttons than with a phone I need to look at to operate.
The poor battery life of multifunction devices (and the inability for a user to replace iPhone batteries) is another factor making folks reluctant to give up older form factors.
You are right on many counts. But in the long run I think the majority of people will choose all-in-one devices like the iPhone over dedicated devices.
There is this tendency for old ways to persist even after they've been usurped by more modern alternatives. I call this Paradigm Persistence.
For example, although we have air planes we still use land cars and although we have land cars we still walk. The old ways have persisted because in many instances they make more sense. That said, most people choose to fly from Chicago to California rather than drive let alone walk.
The iPhone is, in my opinion and that of others, the first real personal computer. It is an all-in-one device that isn't perfect by any stretch but it is ground breaking. The importance of the iPhone is that its the beginning of a new paradigm in computing. It's not the last word by a long shot, but it's a really good start. Eventually, the idea of having separate devices will be antiquated but will probably persist.
Take a look at the digital cameras in today's phones. They go up to 5 megapixels or more - that rivals the best digital cameras from just 10 years ago. Does that mean there will not be demand for 20 megapixel professional cameras with interchangeable lenses and high speed burst modes? No. But it does mean that for most people the digital camera in their phone will become more than sufficient.
Post a Comment