It's pretty much all over the press now that Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has predicted that Apple will indeed be releasing a larger tablet computer but that it won't happen until 2010.Of course I was pretty disappointed, but having been an industry analyst at one point myself I know something about the process of making predictions. When there is very little evidence, market predictions are mostly guess work and gut instinct. So how good is Gene Munster's gut instinct? Based on a couple articles I found he's batting about 50/50 (Note: A sample size of two is not significant; only anecdotal).
A 2005 article on the possibility of Apple developing an iPhone quoted Munster predicting that the device would come out in 2006 or 2007. Chalk one up for Munster.
However he also predicted that same year that Apple would come out with a 1 terabyte iPod within 5 years, but so far that didn't turn out to be true (not yet anyway). Maybe Apple will announce a 1 terabyte iPod at the World Wide Developer Conference this year instead of the tablet computer. We'll find out pretty soon.
Personally, I hope Apple does introduce a multiouch tablet computer ( a real tablet not a laptop with a swivel screen) this year and throws egg on Gene Munster's face. Not because I dislike Gene Munster - I don't even know him - but only because (and this is very selfish I know) I want one and I don't want to wait until 2010 to get it.
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